Demographic Impacts of Climatic Fluctuations in Northeast China, 1749-1909*

Abstract

We examine the demographic impacts of climatic fluctuations in northeast China in the late eighteenth century and the nineteenth century. Specifically, we focus on the consequences of extended periods of unusually cool summers, which in northeast China tended to be associated with poor grain harvests. During the period covered by the northeast Chinese population register data that we analyze, 1749-1909, there are three periods during which there were cool summers of unusual frequency or intensity: 1782-1789, 1813-1815, and 1831-1841. These periods coincided with major disruptions elsewhere in Asia that were climate-related. In Japan, the Tenmei famine took place in 1783-1786, and the Tenpo famine took place in 1833-1838. The Indonesian volcano Tambora erupted in April of 1815, and had adverse effects on climate around the world. We show that the period that coincided with the Tenmei famine in Japan was characterized by a massive mortality crisis, another that took place between 1810 and 1817 was characterized by a substantial reduction in fertility, and another that coincided roughly but not exactly with the Tenpo famine in the 1830s did not exhibit a pronounced mortality or fertility response. Patterns of responses revealed by our disaggregation by gender, age, socioeconomic status and other characteristics are a mixture of the expected and unexpected. Low-status individuals generally fared especially poorly, but there were cases where nominally high-status individuals also fared especially poorly.