The (Hidden) Costs of Political Instability: Evidence from Kenya’s 2007 Election Crisis

Abstract

This paper studies whether and how households coped with the civil conict that immediately followed the December 2007 Presidential Election crisis in Kenya. We observe sizeable downfalls in income, expenditure, and food consumption for a broad segment of the rural population over the two months of social unrest. To make up for the income shortfall, women who supply transactional sex engaged in higher risk sex both during and after the crisis, increasing the risk of HIV/AIDS transmission. These results suggest that social unrest is an important channel through which political instability can a¤ect long-term outcomes and development.