Social, Economic, and Demographic Determinants of Descent Line Growth and Extinction Over the Long Term in Historical China

PWP-CCPR-2010-005

Abstract

We assess the implications of demographic differentials associated with socioeconomic status for long-term changes in population composition through analysis of a household register data from northeast China during the eighteenth and nineteenth century. Specifically, we investigate whether the descendants of socioeconomically advantaged men accounted for a disproportionate share of the population in later generations. We take advantage of a multigenerational dataset of historical population registers that allows for direct measurement of numbers of surviving descendants in subsequent generations because it spans seven generations over 150 years, covers a population that is largely closed to in- and out-migration, and supports reconstruction of male pedigrees via automated record linkage. We use these data to relate the numbers of descendants in subsequent generations to male socioeconomic status and other characteristics. The study contributes to the growing literature on interactions between social stratification and socioeconomic differences in demographic behavior. In particular, we assess whether processes like ones that Clark (2007) suggested operated in preindustrial England were also present in historical China. Preliminary results indicate that descendants of socioeconomically privileged males accounted for larger shares of the population two and four generations later, suggesting that processes like the ones Clark suggested for England may have operated in China as well.