ON THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF ANTI-DRUG ERADICATION PROGRAMS IN PRODUCER COUNTRIES

PWP-CCPR-2013-016

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of the biggest anti‐drug program ever applied in a drug‐producer country. I use a unique and rich data set with 1‐ square‐kilometer satellite information on the location of coca crops between 2000 and 2010 in Colombia to identify the effects of spraying herbicides on coca production and on the welfare conditions of coca‐producing areas. I exploit the exogenous variation created by governmental restrictions to spraying in protected areas (i.e., natural parks and indigenous territories) to identify the effects of the program. My results suggest that there is only a quarter reduction in coca grown per hectare sprayed, whereas there are sizable unintended negative effects on the welfare conditions of the treated areas. Specifically, if the share of area sprayed in a given municipality increases by 1%, poverty rates increase 4 percentage points, school dropout increases 0.82 percentage points, infant mortality rates increase 1.26 percentage points, and homicide rates increase 4.23 percentage points. Although some of these effects revert 3 years after the treatment implementation, the effects on poverty rates and infant mortality seem permanent.