The Effect of Demographic Inertia on Increasing the Percent of Women on University Faculty

PWP-CCPR-2015-008

Abstract

Despite years of personnel initiatives, equitable gender representation on university faculties remains difficult. We explore how demographic inertia, the numerically-induced resistance to change inherent in an organization’s hiring and attrition rates, shapes and limits progress. Using data provided by a university, a mathematical model is used to project future gender distributions for its management and science departments given current hiring and attrition rates. The results show that change is slow and nonlinear. Early gains do not portend eventual success. In addition, while both departments show low percentages of female faculty at the beginning, their futures likely differ. The management department requires immediate, and likely uncomfortable, increases in hiring rates. The science department needs to retain low attrition rates. Thus, the two departments require different personnel interventions. The results demonstrate how university administrators might use such analyses to target demographic weak spots in departments.