Cohort Size and the Marriage Market: What Explains the Negative Relationship?

PWP-CCPR-2018-002

Abstract

Bronson and Mazzocco (2017) document a strong and negative relationship between changes in cohort size and changes in marriage rates for both women and men. This empirical pattern is puzzling if interpreted using insights derived from the previous literature and a two-sided matching model `a la Becker, which predicts that an increase in cohort size should reduce the marriage rate of women, but increase the marriage rate of men. In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms behind the negative relationship using a standard dynamic search model of the marriage market. We first show that the model we consider is rejected by the data for the same reason the Becker-style matching model is rejected: it predicts that a rise in cohort size should reduce the marriage rate of women, but increase the marriage rate of men. We then develop two variations of the search model and show that they are both able to generate the observed relationship between cohort size and marriage rates. Lastly, we derive a testable implication for the two models based on the relationship between cohort size and divorce rates and provide evidence that only one model is not rejected by the data.